Wednesday, July 20, 2016

MBS Day Ahead: "Key Levels" Ain't Always Perfect

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bond yields hit all time lows. Then they bounced higher. Widespread discussion ensued on the next "key levels" to watch. The goal, of course, is to determine whether or not any given level of weakness is alarming or simply all part of the bigger picture strength that's been in effect for 3+ decades. A point of order here: it would be very difficult indeed for any size of correction to be truly "alarming" in the bigger picture because the long term trend has so much room between current levels and its upper boundary. Even if we only look at 2008's tighter, more aggressive trend, we'd need to see yields well over 2.0% by the end of the year to consider the trend in jeopardy. If we go back to 1988, the threshold rises to a generous 3.3%. All that to say that discussions...(read more)
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from Mortgage News Daily http://ift.tt/29TFfVW

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