MBS RECAP: Bonds Relieved by As-Expected GDP

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The consensus for today's GDP reading among forecasters was for a big increase to 4.1% or 4.2% depending on who does your data aggregation. Either way, that's a big jump from the previous reading of 2.0% (now revised to 2.2%). When key data is seen rising that much, economists have a tendency to undershoot the jump. Traders know it. As such, they get in position for an even bigger move than the forecast suggests. When GDP merely came in "as-expected," bonds breathed a sigh of relief with a modest rally. It was more of a token, really, as yields never threatened yesterday's lows. Stocks confirmed the anticipation with by selling-off at the open (i.e. stocks were also expecting a bigger number, and thus gave up ground when it was "only" 4.1%). Next week is a minefield...(read more)

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