MBS Week Ahead: Fed Announcements are Major Events, but Probably Not This Week's

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In March 2011, the Fed announced it would change things up with respect to its policy announcements. Although there would still be 8 of them each year, 4 of those would now include "economic projections" from FOMC members (forecasts and the infamous "dot" plot of Fed rate expectations). The content of the other 4 meetings would be the same as it ever was (same as it ever was). After letting the days go by, the Fed meetings with the projections and the press conference came to represent the "real" Fed meetings while the other 4 might as well have been water flowing underground. As early as 2012, even the talking heads picked up on this, and by 2013, the expectation for the Fed to ONLY make big moves during the "on-cycle" press conference meetings was fully...(read more)

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