MBS Day Ahead: Biggest Threat To The Range, But There's a Catch

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As many of you are likely tired of hearing, bonds have been locked in an increasingly narrow trading range for weeks. The bounces at the boundaries have been almost perfectly well behaved. In other words, since setting the lines for the first time, we haven't had to adjust them very much in order to contain a few of the more volatile days. This process of adjustment is something we expect to have to do when a consolidation range will run out of room before the time when fundamental events stand a better chance of actually informing a true break away from the range. This time around, we're looking to mid-March as the first logical candidate for a bigger move, even if it might not be the market's "final answer" for 2019. Given that mid-March is weeks away, we need to think...(read more)

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