MBS Day Ahead: NFP Doesn't Matter

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Just in case you haven't witnessed the multiple previous examples of the once and future king of economic data falling on deaf ears (relative to its former glory, anyway), financial markets haven't been much interested in NFP (the nonfarm payroll component of the Employment Situation report) for a couple years at least. Part of the lack of interest is due to the current state of the economy. As far as this expansionary cycle is concerned, labor markets are firing on all cylinders. As such, there's nothing new to be gleaned from another strong payroll print. What's strong? Really anything in the 125k+ neighborhood. Today's forecast calls for 180k from 148k previously. We've had a few NFP prints come in lower, but markets assume those are one-off occasions unless the subsequent...(read more)

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