MBS Day Ahead: The Trend is Not Our Friend

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The winter holiday season can be defined a few different ways. Most broadly, it refers to Thanksgiving through President's day. That's a bit too broad , however, if we're trying to differentiate the type of market movement seen based on holiday-related factors. The most narrow construction would simply be the Christmas-New Years time frame, but this is just a bit too narrow . The happy medium is a time frame that attempts to capture the mass migration of market participation on any given year. This year, the last major tradeable event of 2016--December's Fed Meeting--served as the starting point for the market's holiday season. That much was clear, and the mid-December Fed meeting will almost always fill the same role on years where markets are tuned in to what the Fed is...(read more)

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