MBS Day Ahead: ISM is The Headliner, at Least Until Tomorrow's NFP

Posted To: MBS Commentary

NFP weeks are always a bit more robust in terms of other top shelf economic data. This typically includes one or both of the ISM reports, Chicago PMI, and ADP Employment. The last of those left for this week--ISM Manufacturing--is due out at 10am today. It's from that point on that we will see exactly how markets want to get into position for tomorrow's NFP data. " Getting into position " can vary quite a lot based on the ISM data. If it's tame (i.e. close to the 52.0 consensus, with internal components that are close to their previous levels), we'll get a more unobstructed view of that positioning process. If the data is exceptionally stronger or weaker than expected, and if bonds react accordingly (selling off on stronger data and rallying on weaker data), that won't...(read more)

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