MBS Day Ahead: Fed's Not Hiking, but Still Might Offer Clues

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today brings one of those Fed policy announcements where we can already be reasonably sure of the outcome, but where the subtleties could still prove useful. In fact, we can be so sure of the outcome (i.e. they're not hiking) that the subtleties will receive all the more focus. In short, this is the Fed's official venue to let us know how phased they are--if at all--by the global market turmoil that has been dominating 2016 so far. Based on what I hear and read, it's fairly popular to say that the Fed takes the long view and isn't prone to reacting to things like the changing pace of stock and oil price weakness over just 3-4 weeks. While I agree that the Fed does lean toward the bigger picture over shorter term disruptions when it comes to setting policy, we have a fairly clear...(read more)

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