MBS Day Ahead: Technically Speaking, Bonds are in Trouble. Too Obvious?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

One of my favorite little snippets of analytical wisdom (or perhaps it's an out that I leave myself in case I'm wrong... yes, that's probably it) is something to the effect of the following: The biggest risk to this assessment is how obvious it is. When I dust off this gem, it's not meant to imply that one thing is necessarily more likely to happen than another. Rather, it's to let you know that anyone looking at the technical landscape would be experiencing some sort of tunnel vision on similar conclusions. This time around, the obvious assessment is fairly negative. Well, it's entirely negative as far as the following chart is concerned: These aren't the only technical studies in the world, but they're some of the most 'mainstream.' Any given technical...(read more)

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