Tuesday, September 29, 2015

MBS Day Ahead: Last Day to Consider Big Picture Before Big Potential Volatility

Posted To: MBS Commentary

A month ago today, we were hoping that the ferocious sell-off in bond markets was merely a correction to the ferocious rally that followed the Chinese currency drama and resulting market mayhem. 10yr yields had rallied from over 2.20 to 1.90 in less than a week amid that mayhem, and had taken less than half as much time to bounce all the way back up to 2.20. Fortunately, it was indeed simply a correction, and thus began the exceptionally flat range leading up to September's Fed meeting. This time around, rather than waiting to confirm that bonds are back to a status quo, we're desperately seeking clues that they are finally breaking outside the recent range. This range had been a bit of a moving target, but it's had the same center of mass. That central zone is roughly 2.12 to 2...(read more)
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