Luis L. Bair's Blog: October 2016

Monday, October 31, 2016

MBS RECAP: Fiercely Apathetic Day, Especially For Month-End

The last trading day of any given month is more volatile and more actively traded than the average trading day. That wasn't the case today, which is somewhat of a surprise given that the previous trading session saw the highest yields in 5 months amid very high volume. With that set-up, today was more likely to go big in either direction, at least from a strictly technical perspective (i.e. if we ignore all of the fundamental events in play). But wouldn't you know it! There are a ton of fundamental events in play, and by the time we consider them, we can probably forgive the bond market for being indecisive here! These include things like the impending Fed Announcement on Wednesday, the election uncertainty created by last Friday's 'email investigation reopening,' and certainly...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Fiercely Apathetic Day, Especially For Month-End

Posted To: MBS Commentary

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Mortgage Rates End October Just Off 5-Month Highs

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates moved sideways to slightly lower for the 2nd day in a row, after hitting the highest levels in 5 months on Thursday. While the positive progress is better than a sharp stick in the eye, it nonetheless leaves us right in line with highs for all practical purposes. In fact, virtually all lenders are putting out quotes today that are indistinguishable from Thursday's for most prospective borrowers. The most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate remains 3.625% on top tier scenarios, with a handful of the most aggressive lenders at 3.5%. The remainder of the week brings several flashpoints for market volatility, with Wednesday's Fed announcement being the center of attention. The Fed is not expected to announce a rate hike this week (though it's not impossible, by any means...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates End October Just Off 5-Month Highs

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

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Hawthorne by Pennyfarthing

Pennyfarthing Homes brings a stunning new development to Vancouver's West side. This amazing development will consist of 1-3 bedroom residences ranging from 680 sq ft to 1,433 sq ft over 7 storeys.

The Hawthorne is situated next to the lovely Queen Elizabeth park and just a short walk along Cambie will bring you to the Oakridge mall where you will satisfy all you shopping and dinning needs.

Pricing has not yet been determined. Please register and join our VIP list to be one of the first to receive information

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Hawthorne by Pennyfarthing

Pennyfarthing Homes brings a stunning new development to Vancouver’s West side. This amazing development will consist of 1-3 bedroom residences ranging from 680 sq ft to 1,433 sq ft over 7 storeys.

The Hawthorne is situated next to the lovely Queen Elizabeth park and just a short walk along Cambie will bring you to the Oakridge mall where you will satisfy all you shopping and dinning needs.

Pricing has not yet been determined. Please register and join our VIP list to be one of the first to receive information

The post Hawthorne by Pennyfarthing appeared first on Vancouver New Condos.

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Budget Friendly Fixes for a Sad Sad Sofa

Your sofa is the centerpiece of your living room, and maybe your whole home, so you want it to look nice. Unfortunately, a sofa is also one of the most expensive furniture purchases you can make, and sometimes buying a new one just isn't in the cards. Whether your sofa is saggy and sad, or just plain ugly, we've got some suggestions for budget-friendly ways to give it new life — and a new look.

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10 Do-Good Gifts — Kitchn

(Image credit: Courtesy of Jess Pelphrey)

From Kitchn → 10 Feel-Good Food Gifts That Give Back

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A Handy Couple Modernizes a Nashville Bungalow — House Tour

Name: Brooks, Matt and Reed
Location: East Nashville — Nashville, TN
Size: With basement den, 1800 sq. ft.
Years lived in: Owned 5 Years

Brooks and Matt bought their first house five years ago and have since transformed it into a beautiful, bright and modern living space. They have done most of the work themselves in stages, with the basement being the last big project. When they first moved in, they lived out of one room while renovating the kitchen and the living room. Brooks described it as "glamping" in her own house. The house was built in the '50s, which made for great bones but not a great layout. Matt tore down a wall and added a support beam in the living area to make it one big room. They also moved the staircase from the middle of the living room to the back to create a more unified flow.

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When You Love Coffee, You Get Married at a Coffee House — Real Weddings

Bride & Groom: Carin Bagguley & Martin Hopkins
Wedding Date: October 16th, 2015 (ceremony), April 23, 2016 (reception)
Venue: Anodyne Coffee, Walker's Point, Milwaukee
Number of guests: 14 at the ceremony, 150 at the reception

The stuff on your to-do list when you're planning a wedding—choosing a color palette, booking a dining hall and deciding on which flowers should go in the centerpieces—that's all extra. All you truly need to make a wedding happen is two committed people and a witness standing with them to make it official.

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Get the Look: Mid-Century & Bohemian-Inspired Colorful Style — Shop the Style

Bright, cheerful, full of patterns and textures—Becca and Doug's California home is a visual stunner. With items sourced from secondhand shops, the internet, and new things, too, Becca's style isn't tough to duplicate. Check out her resource lists for some bright mid-century, bohemian inspiration to bring some joy to your home!

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Tara's Budget Rental Remodel: Severing Ties With a 1970s Style Kitchen

Tara Bellucci, our News & Culture Editor, just moved into a new apartment in Boston's South End this fall. The space definitely needed updating but, since Tara's renting, a full on, rip-it-all-out reno just isn't in the cards. She got permission from her landlord to make a few changes — simple inexpensive updates to make it more livable and inviting. And yes, a whole lot less ugly. Her landlord even agreed to pitch in to help get it done, by way of a handyman to do some of the labor.

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Believe It Or Not, This Roof Is Solar — Design News

Leave it to Tesla to finally make solar power less ugly. On Friday, Elon Musk unveiled Tesla's new Solar Roof, and if you're wondering where the panels are, they're hiding in plain sight.

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An Urban Cottage In Hell's Kitchen — House Tour

Name: Amelia Nicholas
Location: Hell's Kitchen, New York City
Size: 490 square feet
Years lived in: Renting 3 years

Amelia has transformed her 490 square foot studio in Hell's Kitchen into a luxurious, modern home. Every section of this well-designed studio makes such a huge impression that you forget you are in a small space.

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Organization Goals: 11 Inspiring Bullet Journal Budget Trackers You Need to See

The words "bullet journaling" usually elicit one of three reactions from people: One: "What's that?," Two: "How does anyone have time for that?," or Three: whatever the dialogue version of the heart-eyes emoji is. A bullet journal, if you're unfamiliar, is an organizational system that combines your diary, sketchbook, to-do list and more all into one. It sounds like a lot because it is—you're basically turning a blank canvas into a beautiful and creative way to plan out and keep track of your entire life.

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The Most Memorable Trading Spaces Makeovers

(Image credit: TLC)

Remember when "Trading Spaces" shone a light on your budding love for interior design? If you're like me, you found your teenage self confused by your strong desire to stay home on the weekends and peep TLC's most riveting home design programming. From Doug's jungle room to the Jessica Biel episode, we've unearthed some of Trading Spaces' most memorable makeovers, that you probably (some for the best) forgot about.

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Before & After: Beautiful Beam for a Bedroom

(Image credit: Liz of Love Grows Wild )

Liz's bedroom was already a cozy and serene space with a sloped ceiling and white plan walls, but she wanted to add a little something special.

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Look We Love: Dark and Moody Fall Florals

As the days grow shorter and darker, our favorite summer florals are coming over to the dark side, showing up in deep hues on wallpaper, textiles and even tiles. Like a walk through the garden at night, the prints are lush, romantic and moody in the best way possible.

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Move Over Optimus Prime; This Woman Won a Costume Contest Dressed as...Amazon Prime — Happy Halloween

Some people order their last-minute Halloween costumes using Amazon Prime, but Caron Arnold had a better idea. She collected her coworkers' discarded boxes and snagged the top spot in the office costume contest in the process.

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Closet Tour: Satoe's Organized, Stylish Closet — APARTMENT THERAPY VIDEO

Satoe Kawashima expresses her inner joy in patterns and pleats. And although she now has her own unique system for keeping her closet organized, it hasn't always been that way.

My closet used to be a huge mess. I couldn't find where things were, so I thought - maybe I'll organize by section. Sometimes tops can be buried with long dresses, so I decided to organize by the same family of clothing. Then - organize by color. I'm a very visual person - so once it's color coded, I'm motivated to keep it clean & organized. It saves the time looking for clothes. It's a time saver for me - like losing your keys.

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5 Secret Weapons of the Frugal Decorator

Smart decorators know that you don't have to spend a lot of money to have a home that looks great. You just need a few tricks up your sleeve.

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What's Your Dreamiest Date Night In? This Quiz Will Help You Find Out — Kitchn

(Image credit: Jamie Street)

From Kitchn → What's Your Perfect Date Night In?

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13 Spooky, Silly and Fun Halloween-Themed Date Ideas

It's the most wonderful time of the year—yes, I know that song is about Christmas, but for those of us who prefer witches and vampires to Santa Claus and his elves, late October is when things truly become magical. And Halloween is the perfect time to up your dating game, because there's always so much to do.

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Let Us Help You Make the Holidays Happier for a Special Someone — VIDEO CASTING CALL

Do you have someone in your life who you'd love to celebrate by surprising them with a gift this holiday season? Someone who might not expect a present from you but who would, of course, be so happy to know you care? Is there a neighbor, or an old teacher, or someone you love but haven't talked to in a long time - that you want to honor with a present?

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This Designer Turned a San Francisco Rental Apartment Into a Personal Family Home — Professional Project

(Image credit: Suzanna Scott Photography)

Project by: Courtney Springer Interiors
Location: San Francisco, California

Renters can sometimes get boxed into the prefabricated design of their temporary dwelling. White walls, cheap commercial-grade flooring and a set floorplan leaves little to the imagination for curating a home that is respectively you, even if it just for the time-being. That's the dilemma a growing young family faced as they viewed their bland San Francisco abode.

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Black Knight Home Prices Buck Industry Trend

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The fourth and last of the August home price estimates is in and none of them show any slowing of appreciation. Among peers, Black Knight Financial Services is the only one that doesn't report a greater year-over-year gain in August than it did in July. Black Knight puts its Home Price Index (HPI) at $266,000, an annual increase of 5.3 percent, unchanged from the previous month. Black Knight calls this "a trend of very stable growth . The 5.3 percent increase is, in fact, identical to the percentage gain in the index in seven out of the last eight months. The index rose 0.3 percent compared to July. The change from June to July was 0.4 percent. The HPI is now only 0.7 percent below the peak set before the housing crisis and has risen 33 percent from the market's 2012 bottom. Home prices in...(read more)

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Upcoming Events; Jumbo, Pricing, and USDA News; Economy Doing Pretty Well?

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Here we are at Halloween already. Who will win the inter-department costume contest, shipping or accounting? And what could be more horrifying for a borrower than an appraisal that is late, or comes in $50k under the transaction price? But what about the poor appraisers – don’t they have some frightful tales? Yes, they do . What isn't terrifying is the economy: traders believe that the 1.2% drop in Treasury security prices this month, the biggest loss in nearly two years, is a sign that the U.S. economy is truly recovering. Jumbo news out there? Price adjustment changes? Yes, there's a little. Lending standards in the jumbo space are loosening , even as the luxury end of the housing market underperforms . (I've heard Miami Beach is once again actually heading down in price.) Loan...(read more)

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MBS Week Ahead: Bond Markets Won't Miss October

Posted To: MBS Commentary

It's no mystery that the prevailing trend in bond markets has been negative for several months. At first , this was no big deal, as Treasury yields just hit all-time lows in early July. Coming off all-time lows, it's easy to forgive a bit of a corrective bounce. After all, rates can't go perpetually lower without blowing off some steam from time to time. With that in mind, things weren't too alarming heading into the end of August. True, the low yields on any given day were trending higher, but the high yields remained under a ceiling of 1.60%, in general. That began to change in early September as the first hints of European Central Bank tapering begin trickling in. Yields tried to break back below 1.60% at the end of the month, but were only able to hold it for a few days...(read more)

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Black Knight Home Prices Buck Industry Trend

Posted To: MND NewsWire

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Upcoming Events; Jumbo, Pricing, and USDA News; Economy Doing Pretty Well?

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Here we are at Halloween already. Who will win the inter-department costume contest, shipping or accounting? And what could be more horrifying for a borrower than an appraisal that is late, or comes in $50k under the transaction price? But what about the poor appraisers – don't they have some frightful tales? Yes, they do . What isn't terrifying is the economy: traders believe that the 1.2% drop in Treasury security prices this month, the biggest loss in nearly two years, is a sign that the U.S. economy is truly recovering. Jumbo news out there? Price adjustment changes? Yes, there's a little. Lending standards in the jumbo space are loosening , even as the luxury end of the housing market underperforms . (I've heard Miami Beach is once again actually heading down in price.) Loan...(read more)

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MBS Week Ahead: Bond Markets Won't Miss October

Posted To: MBS Commentary

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Friday, October 28, 2016

Contessa at Queen Elizabeth Park – Spacious Cambie Corridor Presale Luxury Condos

Pure West Property Investment in partnership with GBL Architects is proud to bring you their new Luxury Development Contessa located in the very popular cambie corridor. This stunning development will feature a six-storey mid-rise building which will include 18 1-bedroom, 19 2-bedroom, and eight 3-bedroom condominiums. Sizes will range from 608 to 1,177 sq ft. There will also be 3 lane way townhouses. Located on the corner of West 37th enjoy the stunning views of Queen Elizabeth park and withing close proximity you will also have great shopping and dining options.

Be apart of an Amazing community and register now for more information and pricing.

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MBS RECAP: Market Fatigue Showing as Fed Day Looms

Posted To: MBS Commentary

After 2 days of heavy selling in global bond markets, today was a relative paradise of inactivity. Volume remained rather high by historical standards, but that was due to an afternoon anomaly that brought in heavy 2-way flows (balanced buyers and sellers). Volatility in trading levels was actually highest after this morning's economic data. GDP came in stronger than expected (2.9 vs 2.5) and bonds added to overnight weakness. 10yr yields hit their highest intraday levels in nearly 5 months, but quickly bounced back toward unchanged levels. The anomaly in question was the announcement that the FBI was reopening its investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails. Of course this has all sorts of implications regarding the presidential race, and markets were eager to take and make bets accordingly...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Market Fatigue Showing as Fed Day Looms

Posted To: MBS Commentary

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Contessa at Queen Elizabeth Park – Spacious Cambie Corridor Presale Luxury Condos

Be apart of an Amazing community and register now for more information and pricing.

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Rates Recover Nominally, but Remain Near 5-Month Highs

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates recovered slightly today, after hitting the highest levels in nearly 5 months yesterday. Unfortunately, that leaves today's rates with the dubious distinction of "2nd highest in nearly 5 months." It continues to be the case that lenders won't be eager to offer major improvements on rate sheets, even if underlying bond markets improve. In other words, the current dynamic between market movement and mortgage rates is different than the norm . When bond markets are more stable, and especially when they're not in the midst of a trend toward higher rates, lenders are more willing to adjust rates sheets such that they're keeping logical pace with market movement. Right now, however, lenders have to be cautious about the risk that bond markets continue to weaken. They want to see a...(read more)

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Rates Recover Nominally, but Remain Near 5-Month Highs

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

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CFPB Fires HMDA Warning Shots at 44 Lenders

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) chief Richard Cordray announced on Thursday that his agency had issued warning letters regarding reporting under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) to 44 financial institutions. The letters advised the companies, which included both mortgage lenders and mortgage brokers that they appear to be in violation of HMDA requirements. CFPB identified the 44 companies through a review of available bank and nonbank mortgage data. The letter reads in part, "While we have not made a determination that [Name of Company] is in violation of HMDA filing requirements, we urge you to review your practices to ensure that you comply with all relevant laws. You may find it helpful to review the text of HMDA, Regulation C, and CFPB guidance documents available on...(read more)

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CFPB Fires HMDA Warning Shots at 44 Lenders

Posted To: MND NewsWire

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MGIC & Radian earnings; Trends in Borrower Equity; CFPB, HMDA, & 44 lenders

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Here's a letter that, as a lender, you probably don't want to receive from the CFPB. Remember that the CFPB runs HMDA now, and fired this shot across the bow to 44 lenders. "The letters say that recipients should review their practices to ensure they comply with all relevant laws. The companies are encouraged to respond to the Bureau to advise if they have taken, or will take, steps to ensure compliance with the law." (I was unable to pull up the actual letter - must be my computer.) What have recent 3 rd quarter earnings announcements from those feisty private mortgage insurance companies told us about industry trends? MGIC Investment Corp. beat some estimates due to lower incurred losses driven by positive reserve development and higher net premiums earned. NIW (new insurance...(read more)

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MGIC & Radian earnings; Trends in Borrower Equity; CFPB, HMDA, & 44 lenders

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Here’s a letter that, as a lender, you probably don’t want to receive from the CFPB. Remember that the CFPB runs HMDA now, and fired this shot across the bow to 44 lenders. "The letters say that recipients should review their practices to ensure they comply with all relevant laws. The companies are encouraged to respond to the Bureau to advise if they have taken, or will take, steps to ensure compliance with the law." (I was unable to pull up the actual letter - must be my computer.) What have recent 3 rd quarter earnings announcements from those feisty private mortgage insurance companies told us about industry trends? MGIC Investment Corp. beat some estimates due to lower incurred losses driven by positive reserve development and higher net premiums earned. NIW (new insurance...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: The Upside of Horrible Bond Market Weakness

Posted To: MBS Commentary

It's going to be a while until we can truly sort out whether the current bout of bond market weakness is the same sort of correction seen in early 2015 (i.e. almost done) or if it will be more like mid-2013 (i.e. just getting warmed up). Of course there's always an outside chance that a sell-off could be even bigger--as many have feared for years--but I'll believe in that possibility after I see it happen (rising rates require rising growth, inflation, and government borrowing, so you'll forgive me if I'm skeptical about 2 of those 3 components). If a sell-off were to truly get out of control , it would reach a point where it was disproportionately bad for lower MBS coupons. This is due to the concept of negative convexity, which is a confusing way to say that investors...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: The Upside of Horrible Bond Market Weakness

Posted To: MBS Commentary

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Thursday, October 27, 2016

MBS RECAP: Weakest Levels in Nearly 5 Months

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Traders who reported seeing buying signals as 10yr yields approached 1.80 earlier this week would surely like to borrow a time machine . In retrospect, 1.80% turns out to have been a sell signal, and a loud one at that. In defense of those traders, and indeed of the entire notion of upper range boundaries logically serving as buy signals for range-bound markets, their logic was sound until today's European session. Particularly, UK GDP not only remained positive in the post-Brexit 3rd quarter, but it nearly doubled its median forecast. Brexit schmexit! Granted, it's far too soon to declare Brexit a non-event (especially because it hasn't even officially happened), but the GDP results nonetheless rejected the notion of the post-apocalyptic dystopia that had fueled so much Brexit...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Weakest Levels in Nearly 5 Months

Posted To: MBS Commentary

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Mortgage Rates Spike to 5-Month High

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates are much higher today, regardless of anything else you may have seen. Why am I alluding to other things you may have seen? Because it's Thursday--the day that Freddie Mac publishes its weekly mortgage rate survey, which is subsequently used as source material for most major media outlets. A barrage of similar headlines about any topic would tend to give the impression that something is true, but nothing could be further from the truth today. Not only have rates not moved any lower this week, but today specifically, they're sharply higher . The discrepancy is a result of Freddie's methodology, which invites responses over the first 3 days of any given week, with a majority coming in by Tuesday. As such, the survey tends to compare Mon/Tue rates from this week to Mon/Tue rates...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Spike to 5-Month High

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

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Get the Look: Global Mid-Century Modern in Los Angeles — Shop the Style

Looking at Alison and Jon's Mount Washington home, you'd never guess that they share it with 5-year-old twins and a puppy. The hardworking, durable, colorful, and classic yet playful pieces they've filled it with make it the perfect family home, and now you can shop the style!

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Procrastinators, We Got You: The Big, Bad List of 211 Last-Minute Halloween Ideas

It's getting scary: Halloween is just days away. You need Halloween ideas, and you need them NOW! From spooky decor, to chic party ideas, to couples costumes and puppy apparel, we've rounded up more than 200 enchanting projects and transformative getups so you can get your Halloween on like a bat out of hell.

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